Heads Up Log - Quick Games
01/21/08 19:24 Filed in: Poker
Amazing.
Three quick games. In my first game of the day, I end up the loser. The user hits two pair on the flop to my ill fated Ace-Ten. I caught the ace on the turn and bet. I got dragged down by the player and he did a good job.
The second game lasted exactly 1 hand. I had 9-5 os. I was on the button. The opponent did the standard 3x BB bet (bet pot on FTP). I called. The flop is 9-5-10. I flopped two pair. I bet and the other person goes all in. I thought about it for a moment. They can't be protecting much, except trips. Against trips, I am about toast. I put them on over cards (AK-A10) or pairs (AA-JJ). Against either of these hands, I am not in a bad position. I called.
Well, it turns out, I was partly right. He turned over QJ. The old open-ended straight draw. Well, with 8 outs, I am a decent favorite. My estimation says he will win about 32% of the time. According to PokerStove, the actual odds are just about 33% (32.828%). This is almost exactly what my odds were preflop (32.491 vs 67.509%). The next two cards are blanks and I hold on to win.
The next heads up tournament was twice as long as this one.
The first hand I pick up is K10. I bet the pot (3x BB) and he folds. Nice, quick, clean and easy.
The next hand is Pocket 10s. I bet the pot, again. He called, again. The flop Ac10c7s hits me fairly well. I like my trips, so I want to draw him into pot. I simply bet 20 chips. He called.
The turn brings the 6 of Spades. I am not fond of this. First, it means that there's a possible straight draw (or even a made straight). Any 89 has me beat. Any hand with an 8 or 9 is only a card from beating me. In addition to this, there are now two possible flush draws. There are two spades and clubs on the board with one more card to come. I bet half the pot and wait. He responds by reraising me the pot. Hmm. I didn't think he had it so I reraised him the pot. Now the pot is huge. He calls.
The last card is layed down, the Ace of Hearts. Well, there's good news and bad news. I have a full house, but his betting could be Ace-10, Ace-7 or A-6. He just made a full house if he is holding it. I decide to put in a suck bet, 20 chips. He had 415 left. And he put them all in. Having a full house, heads up, I could not fold. I simply hoped that he was playing two pair. I called.
Strange play, but I guess it makes sense when you think about it. He had K3c. When I led out on the first hand, he may have wanted to play back at me on his next opportunity. The flop gave him a glimmer of hope. Preflop, I am 68% to win. After the flop. I estimate that he had 9 chances to hit his flush for a roughly 36% chance to win. On the flop, he is actually 25%. This delta in my estimation assumes that I don't improve. Of couse, if an Ace comes on the turn or river, I will win. Then, there's the 7. And if the turn and river hold runner runner for me, I would win. So, he has at least one less out, the 7 of clubs. So, by removing just the 7 of clubs, he has 8 outs, which knocks him to 32%.
When the 6 comes on the turn, it removes the 6 of clubs from being an out, as well. He has to hope the turn is not an Ace, 10, 7 or 6. And he has to hope it is the remaining clubs (Q, J, 9, 8, 4, 2). With 6 outs, I estimated his winning at 12% going into the river card. His actual odds were 15.90%. Still, I was a heavy favorite.
Three quick games. In my first game of the day, I end up the loser. The user hits two pair on the flop to my ill fated Ace-Ten. I caught the ace on the turn and bet. I got dragged down by the player and he did a good job.
The second game lasted exactly 1 hand. I had 9-5 os. I was on the button. The opponent did the standard 3x BB bet (bet pot on FTP). I called. The flop is 9-5-10. I flopped two pair. I bet and the other person goes all in. I thought about it for a moment. They can't be protecting much, except trips. Against trips, I am about toast. I put them on over cards (AK-A10) or pairs (AA-JJ). Against either of these hands, I am not in a bad position. I called.
Well, it turns out, I was partly right. He turned over QJ. The old open-ended straight draw. Well, with 8 outs, I am a decent favorite. My estimation says he will win about 32% of the time. According to PokerStove, the actual odds are just about 33% (32.828%). This is almost exactly what my odds were preflop (32.491 vs 67.509%). The next two cards are blanks and I hold on to win.
The next heads up tournament was twice as long as this one.
The first hand I pick up is K10. I bet the pot (3x BB) and he folds. Nice, quick, clean and easy.
The next hand is Pocket 10s. I bet the pot, again. He called, again. The flop Ac10c7s hits me fairly well. I like my trips, so I want to draw him into pot. I simply bet 20 chips. He called.
The turn brings the 6 of Spades. I am not fond of this. First, it means that there's a possible straight draw (or even a made straight). Any 89 has me beat. Any hand with an 8 or 9 is only a card from beating me. In addition to this, there are now two possible flush draws. There are two spades and clubs on the board with one more card to come. I bet half the pot and wait. He responds by reraising me the pot. Hmm. I didn't think he had it so I reraised him the pot. Now the pot is huge. He calls.
The last card is layed down, the Ace of Hearts. Well, there's good news and bad news. I have a full house, but his betting could be Ace-10, Ace-7 or A-6. He just made a full house if he is holding it. I decide to put in a suck bet, 20 chips. He had 415 left. And he put them all in. Having a full house, heads up, I could not fold. I simply hoped that he was playing two pair. I called.
Strange play, but I guess it makes sense when you think about it. He had K3c. When I led out on the first hand, he may have wanted to play back at me on his next opportunity. The flop gave him a glimmer of hope. Preflop, I am 68% to win. After the flop. I estimate that he had 9 chances to hit his flush for a roughly 36% chance to win. On the flop, he is actually 25%. This delta in my estimation assumes that I don't improve. Of couse, if an Ace comes on the turn or river, I will win. Then, there's the 7. And if the turn and river hold runner runner for me, I would win. So, he has at least one less out, the 7 of clubs. So, by removing just the 7 of clubs, he has 8 outs, which knocks him to 32%.
When the 6 comes on the turn, it removes the 6 of clubs from being an out, as well. He has to hope the turn is not an Ace, 10, 7 or 6. And he has to hope it is the remaining clubs (Q, J, 9, 8, 4, 2). With 6 outs, I estimated his winning at 12% going into the river card. His actual odds were 15.90%. Still, I was a heavy favorite.